Mortgage prepays rise on the combination of lower rates, seasonality: KBW

 · McGratty: First quarter is seasonally a weaker quarter for the banks from a mortgage banking perspective and according to the most recent MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast origination volumes in 1Q18 are expected to decline 17% linked quarter – which is partly related to typical Q1 seasonality, but also likely impacted by the recent increase in interest rates. And based on the lower.

Mortgage rates fall. Mortgage rates have tended to fade the big moves in the bond market lately. When rates fall well below 1.9% on the ten-year bond, mortgage rates move lower-although very.

When the borrower prepays their outstanding higher-rate mortgage and substitutes one with a lower rate, the lender’s mortgage-backed security with a juicy high coupon is called away from them.

Credit Suisse Equity Research Americas/United States Mortgage Servicers. than the 11 bp rise that the 10-year treasury rate would imply as mortgage rates were flat in the quarter. See slide 9 for a. fall from seasonality and lower refi activity. GOS margins should be flat to up modestly in.

The sharp rise. the rate of additional MSR purchases during the quarter. As we had expected, prepayment speeds accelerated considerably during the quarter and have remained high in July and early.

Approximately 20% of agency fixed-rate mortgages are currently in the money to refinance, with the vast majority being loans originated in the past two years. Rates fell below 4% for the 30-year FRM two weeks ago, according to Freddie Mac. Older mortgages were originated during a period where rates were lower than they are now.

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In 1971, when Freddie Mac began surveying lenders for mortgage data, interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages ranged from 7.29% to 7.73%. Throughout the 1970s and 80s, mortgage rates steadily climbed as unchecked inflation contributed to a volatile national economy.

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